After giving up valuable points in the National Stadium on Good Friday (last week) where they gave up a 1-0 lead, the Reggae Boyz were embarrassed and outclassed by the Costa Ricans in Costa Rica. The Boyz were hoping to salvage at least one point but were beaten 3-0 by the Central Americans.
Adding insult to injury, Haiti held off Panama until late in that game when Panama scored that late goal to win and move into 2nd place.
So where do they stand now? Jamaica can get a maximum of 10 points now but things are a lot worse if they are in a tie on points at the end. The reason is their goal difference is terrible at this point (-4 vs +2 for PAN and +5 for CR).
The Reggae Boyz no longer control their destiny. I still think getting 10 points is their only realistic chance, one where they depend far less on the outcome of other matches (help) and don’t have to necessarily win big. After all, why would we expect them to win big when they’ve scored 2 goals in 4 matches?
There are multiple scenarios under which Jamaica qualifies for 5th round (final CONCACAF WC qualification round), only 2 being realistic.
1. Win last two matches (vs PAN & HAI) and PAN loses or ties against CR. — realistic
2. Win last two matches by a combined +5 (+2 & +3 or +3 & +2) goals and PAN defeats CR 1-0 — realistic
3. They tie PAN and wins big vs HAI then PAN loses to CR — any combination of +4 goals for JAM — semi-realistic
4. They win big vs PAN, ties vs HAI and PAN loses to CR. — unrealistic
5. They win big vs PAN and HAI, CR loses big to HAI and PAN — very unrealistic
6. They win big vs PAN 3-0, loses to HAI 1-0; PAN loses to CR big (by 2+ goals)
Clearly the Boyz didn’t take advantage of opportunities at home (yielding 1 point from 2 home games) and they have not played well BUT there still is a chance.
What do you think? If they do make it to the next round later this year, by any scenario I outline above, what needs to change?
On the other hand, if they don’t qualify, and it’s quite possible now, is this the end for Schaeffer? What about Capt. Burrell who won re-election unopposed?